PM Johnson has closed down his own Parliament in order to pursue his no-deal Brexit agenda,
As PM Johnson channels his inner Churchill and switches the lights off all over Europe,
European Council President Donald Tusk has warned he will not cooperate with the UK on a no-deal Brexit.
In other words, the EU will do nothing to mitigate its pains.
Whether it acts in the future to increase UK pains remains to be seen.
For the moment, this is what we know
- What happens when the UK exits from the EU at Hallowe’en with No Deal?
All EU Treaties will cease to apply to the UK, without any substitute or transitional arrangements being put in place.
2) What are the pains of a No Deal Brexit?
You can read the full UK Government Yellowhammer report here
Remember: This report states what is likely to happen.
It’s by no means the worst case scenario
3) What about food shortages in Ireland?
There is a strong likelihood that food trade on the island of Ireland, as well as food trade between and through ROI, NI and GB, will be disrupted. Nevertheless Ireland produces plenty of food for her people
Government ‘planning assumptions’ for no-deal imply that severe disruption will commence on the day after Brexit and continue for several months, after which time food trade will settle down at a considerably lower level of activity than prior to 31 October.”
Remember: I’m talking to Scotland, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland here, in this very post
This info is for you all because there will be difficulties delivering food to all outlying areas of the UK and to the Republic of Ireland, simply because of their geographic location.
And you can be quite sure the UK Government will not be making any special contingency plans to help us out.
Remember:
1) These potential food shortages will occur in the winter months, when people need more sustenance to combat the low temperatures and harsh climate in the North and West Atlantic territories.
2) This is when the elderly, sick, weak/delicate and young are particularly vulnerable to coughs, colds, flu, bronchitis, pneumonia etc . Even when they don’t need hospitalization, they need their prescription medicines (which may not be immediately available as they are today) and careful nursing in a warm home environment with good sustaining food like fresh vegetable and chicken broths, freshly squeezed orange juice etc.
Query: Would the Irish ever accept or forgive the English for risking “an gorta mòr” or even “an gorta beag” once again?
4) What happens if PM Johnson refuses to pay for the UK commitments to the EU, as he said he will do?
There’s the threat of going into a judicial action which would tie the UK up in the international courts for years.
The UK’s credibility would be shot to pieces.
No nation would ever again trust them to deal honestly.
Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament’s Brexit co-ordinator:
“If the UK doesn’t pay what is due, the EU will not negotiate a trade deal.
“After a ‘no deal’, this will be a first condition of any talks.
I can imagine the EU will lean on the other 70-odd countries with which it has 40 trade deals to ensure none of them feels inclined to “roll over” their EU trade agreements to the UK in a sort of “cut-and-paste” job lot.
Remember: Since the #Brexit vote, the EU has agreed trade deals with:
1. Canada
2. Japan
3. Brazil
4. Argentina
5. Paraguay
6. Uruguay
7. Vietnam
That = 500,000,000 people
In case of No Deal Brexit, all the EU trade agreements , which the UK is automatically part of, as an EU member state, would fall by the wayside. All would need to be re-negotiated on a bilateral basis of UK and the other country.
Re-establishing the UK’s trade agreements and networks (which take years to negotiate) will be a long and complex process.
Consider also that the UK has had zero experience of negotiating trade deals for the last 40 years and has no trained, expert negotiators!
5) What’s so important about a trade deal?
It sets out an agreement between one state and another on trading practices
Remember: A trade deal does not create any revenue or jobs.
It merely sets the scene for business investment, should companies decide it is in their interest to avail of the set-up.
UK Brexiteers have been deceiving people about “the UK being free to negotiate its own trade deals”
Trade Deals will take years and are no guarantee of jobs or revenue
6) What about on-line shopping?
Buying online will change immediately if Britain leaves without a deal.
” for customers in EU countries, in the event of a no-deal Brexit, immediate changes will come in the form of increased VAT, import tariffs and changes to consumer rights protection for products bought from the UK
Consumers have strong rights when buying within the EU, particularly if they change their minds or if goods are not delivered”.
“These rights do not apply if you buy from a business outside of the EU.
Following a no-Deal Brexit there will be changes to your rights if you are buying online from a UK based retailer,”
Selling online will change immediately if Britain leaves without a deal
Intra- EU and Rest Of the World data flows will go on as before.
BUT . .. data flows to the UK will change as the UK changes to a 3rd Country.
Remember: UK businesses may find themselves in the nasty position of not being able store or access personal or sensitive data of EU citizens.
So how can they sell them anything ?
Take, for example, a UK hotel or chain of hotels, a guest-house, or an AirBnB establishment
They will not be able to contact their previous EU guests to inform them about promotions, new deals, special offers and so on. EU data will no longer be accessible for a 3rd country
UK micro-businesses risk facing a hard future, as it is not easy to source tourists from the rest of the world to replace EU visitors.
7) What happens now with the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement?
Remember: If a country has ratified an International agreement, it is morally and ethically bound to honour it.
The UK has gone to great lengths to state over and over again that it will not put up a border on the island of Ireland.
This specious argument tries to convince people that the UK is not “breaking” the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement.
We all know that it is.
*It instigated Brexit
*It is driving Brexit through in its most extreme form against the wishes of the people in NI and Scotland
They voted to remain in the EU
*Brexit and the Conservative/DUP “confidence and supply” arrangement have already breached the Belfast/GF Agreement as the UK Government has not maintained “rigorous impartiality”.
* A No Deal Brexit breaches the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement in full
What are the potential repercussions for the UK?
Since the UK accepts the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), then the process can be followed up in the ICJ. The Republic of Ireland may even re-instate its claim to the entire island of Ireland which was abrogated to facilitate the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement.
The final line of action would include political and economic exclusion of the UK
Sanctions could be imposed upon the rogue UK by the leading political and economic powers of the World.
However . … the rogue UK is one of the UN Security Council’s five permanent members.
Since it will be difficult to make the UK toe the line, groups of countries will probably get together to make sure that the UK falls in line.
Which brings me back to the EU and its multiple Trade Agreements worldwide
Even then, it may become impossible to make the UK responsible for a treaty it has ratified, if it chooses not to honour it.
The UK may choose to become a pariah state
Remember: I’m talking to Scotland, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland here, in this very post
This info is for you all
PS If you have any other questions, please ask below the line in the comments section.
I’ll do my best to answer them
the mirror@wordpress.com 
Excellent piece and horrific reading in today’s modern world. We are truly led not by donkeys… but by sociopathic donkeys who don’t give a crap for the general populace in the UK, but particularly for Ireland and Scotland.
The sooner we are free to make our own decisions, the better.
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Totally agree Spiritmac with everything you wrote.
Thanks for looking in and welcome to the site.
I hope you enjoy other posts-
Ben
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I am sorry Spiritmac i can’t agree with you that this is an excellent piece, far from it in my opinion. the only bit i would agree with you is your last comment ‘The sooner we are free to make our own decisions, the better.’ but that requires us leaving the EU and with certainly without that absolutely awful Theresa May WA!
As for your post Ben, it appears to be devoid entirely of critical reasoning . i get you don’t want Brexit, i am guessing you’re not British and coming from a very Irish perspective? but this polemic and trying to pass it off as fact!
well let us tale a look at some specifics….
‘As PM Johnson channels his inner Churchill and switches the lights out all over Europe,’
are you for real, are you comparing the UK expressing its contractual rights to leave the EU with WW2? how ridiculous idiot comments like that make you look.
or
2) What are the pains of a No Deal Brexit?
You can read the full UK Government Yellowhammer report here
https://pastebin.com/7gjc6qgy
Remember: This report states what is likely to happen. It’s by no means the worst case scenario
Yes, but you forgot or just wanted to ignore that this is a document from the May / Hammond era, it will have been designed to fit in with her narrative, which certainly did not include saying it was fine to just leave…
Mark Sedwill the EUphile head of the civil service said there had been plenty of progress and government was in pretty good shape to deal with leaving and he said that back in June,!
now, document you are reef erring to has identified risks and potential outcomes, suggesting that immediately following a no-deal Brexit, the UK will face 3-6 months of chaos at ports, a hard Irish border, and food, fuel, and medicine shortages . apparently though they never talked to the French, where you must have noticed that Jean-Marc Puissesseau, president of Port Boulogne Calais said that fears over no deal chaos was Bull S**t. or does that not fit in with your overall narrative, so you’ll lie by omission..
You also swallow whole the idea that the UK can change nothing. if the merde was truly hitting the fan then the UK can just wave these’vital’ supplies through… by the way do you really think that the hauliers would sit for 3 months for dover? they would use an alternative port… you may have noticed as an island, the UK has lots of ports and places like… er Rotterdam would love the business from Calais.
‘3) What about food shortages in Ireland?
Remember: I’m talking to Scotland, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland here, in this very post
This info is for you all because there will be difficulties delivering food to all outlying areas of the UK and to the Republic of Ireland, simply because of their geographic location.’
Please do explain how as the UK leaves the EU why suddenly the UK sans the bureaucrats in Brussels won’t be able move food around its own country?! i am really interested in understanding why you think that?
4) What happens if PM Johnson refuses to pay for the UK commitments to the EU, as he said he will do?
UK will pay its commitments up to the point we leave.. then our legal commitments end. that is what the contract says. the £billions Guy Verhofstadt wants have no basis in law. even the EUphillic House of Lords recognise that the legal obligation is £0. you know that house stuffed full EUphilles who are fighting tooth an nail to keep the UK in the EU.
So, do tell, how will the credibility of the UK be shot to pieces by meeting its legal obligations and stopping paying money into the EU when it leaves? i will wait with bated breath for that.
you said: ‘I can imagine the EU will lean on the other 70-odd countries with which it has 40 trade deals to ensure none of them feels inclined to “roll over” their EU trade agreements to the UK in a sort of “cut-and-paste” job lot.’
what a lovely organisation you think the EU to be, i am glad we both agree it is an abhorrent organisation.
you said…Remember: Since the #Brexit vote, the EU has agreed trade deals with:
1. Canada
2. Japan
3. Brazil
4. Argentina
5. Paraguay
6. Uruguay
7. Vietnam
That = 500,000,000 people
well, Canada can’t wait to have a better bigger agreement, Japan is ongoing and the the mercosur countries, well i am sure you remember that Brazil can’t wait to do a deal with UK…. but, mercosur (barzil, argentina, paraguay and uruguay)… that would be the agreement that Ireland says it will veto? you mean that agreement? you will have noticed that the USA is happy to trade with us as well – without wanting the UK to be its colony like the EU? and the colony bit was the EUs own words.
you also seem to have missed that the UK has rolled over >£100bn in trade worth of agreements … i have to say Ben you are either very lax in your research or again it didn’t;t fit your narrative and you lied by omission again.
oh and this, you said ‘ Consider also that the UK has had zero experience of negotiating trade deals for the last 40 years and has no trained, expert negotiators!’
Again, you must have missed the bit where the UK can hire very good Australian, Canadian, american or New Zealand negotiators …..and has in fact hired the Kiwi Crawfird Falconer…. admittedly under Theresa he wasn’t used much, but hey ho, new team at the top.and all that., but the point stands – and yours doesn’t.
then there is this…
5) What’s so important about a trade deal?
It sets out an agreement between one state and another on trading practices
Remember: A trade deal does not create any revenue or jobs.
It merely sets the scene for business investment, should companies decide it is in their interest to avail of the set-up.
UK Brexiteers have been deceiving people about “the UK being free to negotiate its own trade deals”
Trade Deals will take years and are no guarantee of jobs or revenue
now, you yourself made a big thing about the trade agreements! just before this bt you were boasting about the agreements the EU had made. that aside, i don’t disagree with what you say about them,. but t a good trade deal helps facilitate trade. but this bit – UK Brexiteers have been deceiving people about “the UK being free to negotiate its own trade deals” what on earth pint are you trying to make? are you trying to imply that that statement is incorrect? that the UK can’t negotiate its own trade deals?
6) What about on-line shopping?
now ,i am no expert in this field, and i suspect you aren’t either., but you pertinently pointed this out
‘Intra- EU and Rest Of the World data flows will go on as before.
BUT . .. data flows to the UK will change as the UK changes to a 3rd Country.’
so the UK moves from the EU column into the rest of the world column…..
then you said ‘Remember: UK businesses may find themselves in the nasty position of not being able store or access personal or sensitive data of EU citizens.’ are you saying that this is the case with the rest of the world? that EU law is imposed on the entire planet?
and finally ….
7) What happens now with the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement?
‘The UK has gone to great lengths to state over and over again that it will not put up a border on the island of Ireland.’
i think you are miss quoting – there is already a border on the island of ireland. the UK has said that it won’t put up customs booths and the like on the border and will do the checks away from the border.
then you said
This specious argument tries to convince people that the UK is not “breaking” the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement.
We all know that it is.
*It instigated Brexit
*It is driving Brexit through in its most extreme form against the wishes of the people in NI and Scotland
They voted to remain in the EU
*Brexit and the Conservative/DUP “confidence and supply” arrangement have already breached the Belfast/GF Agreement as the UK Government has not maintained “rigorous impartiality”.
* A No Deal Brexit breaches the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement in full
what rot!
sorry Ben, but you seem to be unaware of the nature of how countries. work and in particular the UK.. The UK voted in this particular referendum and the UK vote was in the majority (c.8% more people voted for as against) to leave the EU. that London, NI, Scotland didn’t matters not a jot for the overall result. of the 399 voting constituencies, 270 returned a leave vote against 129 for remain.. countries on national votes go with the majority. i am sure you even get these results in ireland where you have members of your parliament from different parties! but the national government is the majority and that its government applies to the whole country..
quick question Ben, do you believe in democracy? or is it something you can only support when the voting goes your way?
the GFA makes no reference to both the UK and Ireland having to be in the EU? so how is leaving breaking the GFA? if it does, please highlight the tract of text and put it on your blog here.
i need to ask, what is this extreme brexit you talk of? such hyperbolic talk makes you look silly. this so called extreme brexit you parrot on about, is a natural consequence of the legal means of exiting the EU and becoming a normal country again. or are you saying that all the other 160 odd countries on the planet are extreme because they are not part of the EU customs union and single market? seems a very strange stance to take to me.
*Brexit and the Conservative/DUP “confidence and supply” arrangement have already breached the Belfast/GF Agreement as the UK Government has not maintained “rigorous impartiality”.
that is a direct reference to ;
(v) affirm that whatever choice is freely exercised by a majority of the
people of Northern Ireland, the power of the sovereign government with
jurisdiction there shall be exercised with rigorous impartiality on behalf of
all the people in the diversity of their identities and traditions and shall be
founded on the principles of full respect for, and equality of, civil,
political, social and cultural rights, of freedom from discrimination for all
citizens, and of parity of esteem and of just and equal treatment for the
identity, ethos, and aspirations of both communities;
go on please, explain how that paragraph prohibits the DUP from being involved with the government of their own country, in fact your interpretation would disenfranchise them.
please Ben, just saying things does not make them so, so please explain, how the UK have broken the GFA. and by the way, that paragraph is from an article that applies to both the UK and Irish government – are you saying Ireland have been impartial;? – and relates to the right to self determination.as to whether NI stays part of the UK. i would say given Irleands attempts to ensnare NI within the EU away from the UK you would have an easier time arguing that the Irish government is trying to break the GFA by trying to change NI constitutional settlement within the UK. with no agreement, no vote on the matter in NI.
so to your conclusions…What are the potential repercussions for the UK?
so Ben, repercussions for what precisely? the UK activating its legal right to leave the EU ? you have a very strange take on law, if this is what you think.,
‘The UK may choose to become a pariah state’… you really do have an odd view of the world if you believe this.
Dion
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Thank you for looking in Dion and taking the time to write up such a detailed critique. The Mirror doesn’t often have such convinced Brexiteers commenting on this niche site so we are delighted with the opportunity to consider another point of view. I apologise for the delay in replying to you. Professional committments intervened and a salary had to be to earned!
You said you agree with the comment ‘The sooner we are free to make our own decisions, the better.’ but added
“that requires us leaving the EU and with certainly without that absolutely awful Theresa May WA!”
It doesn’t. It requires Scotland and Northern Ireland remaining within the EU as the majority of people want or at least implementing the backstop for NI. If needs must, it will involve Scotland and NI leaving the UK
“As for your post Ben, it appears to be devoid entirely of critical reasoning”
Proof? Evidence?
“I get you don’t want Brexit, i am guessing you’re not British and coming from a very Irish perspective?
You’re guessing and asking a question, fishing for info.
What’s wrong with “a very Irish perspective”?
Is it illegal? Although it appears to be unacceptable to DUP supporters and arch Brexiteers, that doesn’t make it untenable. The EU and the American Congress support it.As far as regards Ireland, Brexiteers and the DUP appear to be out of step with public opinion
“but this polemic and trying to pass it off as fact!”
The Refs show the facts
‘As PM Johnson channels his inner Churchill and switches the lights out all over Europe,’
are you for real, are you comparing the UK expressing its contractual rights to leave the EU with WW2?”
Brexiteers are the ones who have been bigging up the WW2 references – not me!
The Mirror is merely following a trend!
So your comment is one for the series: It’s OK for them, but not for anyone else!
“how ridiculous idiot comments like that make you look
How ridiculous idiot comments like that make the Brexiteers look.
Fixed that for you!
2) What are the pains of a No Deal Brexit?
You can read the full UK Government Yellowhammer report here
https://pastebin.com/7gjc6qgy
Remember: This report states what is likely to happen. It’s by no means the worst case scenario
Yes, but you forgot or just wanted to ignore that this is a document from the May / Hammond era, . . .. . .
If the Yellowhammer Report is old and out of date, could you please provide a link to the latest report? With all the relevant updates?
It would be very much appreciated and I am willing to make adjustments accordingly. The Labour Party and Stephen Nolan have been making the same request. So far nothing has been forthcoming
You also swallow whole the idea that the UK can change nothing. if the merde was truly hitting the fan then the UK can just wave these’vital’ supplies through… by the way do you really think that the hauliers would sit for 3 months for dover? they would use an alternative port… you may have noticed as an island, the UK has lots of ports and places like… er Rotterdam would love the business from Calais.
What do you not understand about this simple statement?
In the event of a No Deal Brexit “all EU Treaties will cease to apply to the UK, without any substitute or transitional arrangements being put in place”.
‘3) Please do explain how as the UK leaves the EU why suddenly the UK sans the bureaucrats in Brussels won’t be able move food around its own country?! i am really interested in understanding why you think that?
The UK will be able to move food round its own country which will satisfy demand for a certain period of time. Then the supermarket shelves will start to empty as no fresh fruit, veg etc arrives from the EU
4) “UK will pay its commitments up to the point we leave.”
PM Johnson has said otherwise
“So, do tell, how will the credibility of the UK be shot to pieces by meeting its legal obligations and stopping paying money into the EU when it leaves?”
The UK has stated,as you yourself cited, it would not pay and would use the money otherwise. If that does not shoot to pieces the credibility of a nation state, a business or even an individual I don’t know what does.
Would you trust such an individual in the future if you were a creditor or a potential creditior, thinking of entering into an economic/financial deal with such an individual? Unless of course it was some sort of scam?
‘I can imagine the EU will lean on the other 70-odd countries with which it has 40 trade deals to ensure none of them feels inclined to “roll over” their EU trade agreements to the UK in a sort of “cut-and-paste” job lot.’
what a lovely organisation you think the EU to be, i am glad we both agree it is an abhorrent organisation.
Realpolitik mate. Sauve qui peut!
Remember: Since the #Brexit vote, the EU has agreed trade deals with:
you also seem to have missed that the UK has rolled over >£100bn in trade worth of agreements …
Proof? Evidence?
“i have to say Ben you are either very lax in your research or again it didn’t;t fit your narrative and you lied by omission again”.
You are entitled to your point of view. Pity most people don’t agree with you.
‘ Consider also that the UK has had zero experience of negotiating trade deals for the last 40 years and has no trained, expert negotiators!’
This is true. Hired help as you propose, are always unreliable without expert supervision.It’s just not there, in the UK
5) What’s so important about a trade deal?
what on earth pint are you trying to make? are you trying to imply that that statement is incorrect? that the UK can’t negotiate its own trade deals?
The point I am making, obviously unsuccessfully with you, is that Trade Deals take years to negotiate and are no guarantee of jobs or revenue.
6) What about on-line shopping?
“now ,i am no expert in this field, and i suspect you aren’t either”
You suspect . .. I suspect you are Sammy or even Doddsy
Neither of us is likely to be right
‘are you saying that this is the case with the rest of the world? that EU law is imposed on the entire planet?
I’m saying there are agreements with the rest of the world on data flows. If the UK Brexits with no Deal at Hallowe’en “all EU Treaties will cease to apply to the UK, without any substitute or transitional arrangements being put in place” This also applies to data flows
7) What happens now with the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement?
‘The UK has gone to great lengths to state over and over again that it will not put up a border on the island of Ireland.’
At present there is apparently no border on the island of Ireland. Since the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement, people living in the border communities go about their daily lives – farming, sports, hobbies, shopping, socialising etc with no impediments for the first time since partition in Ireland was created.They are not going to give those freedoms up easily for something they don’t want in any case.
This specious argument tries to convince people that the UK is not “breaking” the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement.
We all know that it is.
what rot!
sorry Ben, but you seem to be unaware of the nature of how countries.
I’m unaware?
The UK voted in this particular referendum and the UK vote was in the majority
“quick question Ben, do you believe in democracy? or is it something you can only support when the voting goes your way?”
I do believe in democracy and have often written about the democratic deficit in the UK due to population imbalance. There are lots of posts on that topic. Feel free to peruse the site and express your thoughts
“the GFA makes no reference to both the UK and Ireland having to be in the EU? so how is leaving breaking the GFA? if it does, please highlight the tract of text and put it on your blog here.
i need to ask, what is this extreme brexit you talk of?”
Once again, for the hard of hearing, an extreme brexit is a No Deal Brexit
“such hyperbolic talk makes you look silly. this so called extreme brexit you parrot on about, is a natural consequence of the legal means of exiting the EU and becoming a normal country again. or are you saying that all the other 160 odd countries on the planet are extreme because they are not part of the EU customs union and single market? seems a very strange stance to take to me”
You are comparing apples and oranges. The other 160 odd countries in the world which are not part of the EU are not trying to Brexit
*Brexit and the Conservative/DUP “confidence and supply” arrangement have already breached the Belfast/GF Agreement as the UK Government has not maintained “rigorous impartiality”.
go on please, explain how that paragraph prohibits the DUP from being involved with the government of their own country, in fact your interpretation would disenfranchise them”.
The DUP are one of several minority parties in NI. They have no right to impose their views on the rest of the populace. They have no right to jeopardize the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement with such behaviour, against the will of the NI majority to remasin in the EU or accept the backstop. They have no right to set up circumstances that may bring back wholescale violence . The Orange State has been consigned to the past – the DUP just haven’t realised that simple fact yet
“What are the potential repercussions for the UK?
so Ben, repercussions for what precisely? the UK activating its legal right to leave the EU ?”
How the UK leaves will determine the repercussions it may expect
‘The UK may choose to become a pariah state’
It may.
Or it may decide to avoid a No Deal Brexit
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Interesting rereading Dion’s critique re Yellowhammer in particular given the current British Government released it only this last couple of days and … lo and behold… it is identical in its concerns.
Just a couple of other points to add to your own response to Dion – the GFA/BA is clearly disrupted in its all-island economy aspects by Brexit since Brexit introduces regulatory difference between the two parts of the island. That alone, putting aside security, political and other economic issues (and no lesser personages than the PSNI chief constable has raised negative security implications) is a very real rupture with the GFA/BA. There are many more.
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