What now, Scotland?

February  2020: The first days of the rest of the UK’s life as a former member of the EU. Will it transition  smoothly from awkward, dissatisfied full member to  powerless little 3rd country?

 Query: How long will it last in its  poorer and much-diminished status ?

Not very long . It appears to be fatally fractured  as support for  Scottish IndyRef2 and an Irish reunification Border Poll hits and surpasses the 50% mark and Sinn Fein appears to be striding towards power in next week’s Irish general election.

How fares Scotland?

Scots are deeply upset and angered at losing their EU membership (they voted 62% to remain). Although some thought FM Sturgeon’s speech on Brexit Day was great, many were profoundly disappointed and disillusioned because the SNP leaders had confidently told them for years that Scotland “would  not be taken out of Europe against its will” .

They expected  over-cautious lawyer, FM Nicola Sturgeon to come out  fighting as time ran out on Scotland’s EU membership.  They were looking for ‘leadership and vision’. Instead, the

didn’t seem to have a plan or a strategy on how to protect Scottish rights as EU citizens or how to achieve independence. They had asked Independence supporters to give them a mandate for a referendum at multiple elections, then did nothing and asked for another mandate in the 2021 Scottish election. This could well guarantee them  a low vote  at these Holyrood Elections, due probably to low turnout rather than voting for other parties. Nicola Sturgeon’s speech  has effectively cut the SNP and the Scottish Government adrift from the grassroots Yes movement.

The SNP failed to

Risultati immagini per stop brexit

for Scotland. Since the Brexit referendum  the Scottish Government has focussed more on  stopping Brexit than stopping the imposition of  Brexit on Scotland.

This approach had no way of succeeding. There was no reason why Scotland could, or even should, have altered Brexit, a decision made by the English for England.   Since 62% of the Scots had voted against Brexit, the task for Scottish MPs, MSPs and  MEPs  should have  been to  make sure Scotland wasn’t involved in Brexit in any way.

The second strand of  SNP’s strategy for independence, indeed according to FM Sturgeon “the only  way that it would be recognized internationally”,  was to request Westminster  for a section 30 order for Indyref2. Both times (2016, 2019) requests  were refused by Prime Ministers Theresa May and Boris Johnson.  In her speech, FM Sturgeon repeated she would  simply  ask again at a later date. So  the First Minster’s  approach to achieving Independence through Westminster has already failed. Twice.

Comments: No MSP, MP or MEP has publicly described an alternative route to independence. Scottish Independence will hardly be accomplished by hoping Westminister  sees Scotland’s point of view when it’s in its interests not to.

But David Cameron did”.

He did indeed. Westminster granted a Section 30 order for a referendum on Scottish independence when support  was running at 25% and it was more than likely to lose.

Which it did.

PM Johnson is not going to concede a Section 30 with support for independence running at 50% and likely to win. No British PM wants to be the one that loses Scotland.

Recommendation: 

Comment: Despite the high  SNP vote, Scotland is now  in a very bad position vis-à-vis Independence and EU membership.

Queries:

  • Is Scottish government   actually afraid  to disobey Westminster’s colonial rules and conventions?
  • As a lawyer, is FM Nicola Sturgeon, in full conscience, unable to break the law of Westminster?
  • Are the SNP are afraid of losing IndyRef2? Scared of being seen to lose?

Comment:  FM Sturgeon would be forgiven if she lost, but she will never be forgiven for not trying

 

Comment: No wonder the sound of SNP membership cards being ripped up  echoed voices demanding new SNP leadership over the weekend. It’s not clear where the Scottish Independence movement goes from here. As a national movement, it reflects many strands of political opinion and many personality types,  from the gradualists and constitutionalists, to the patient and tortoise-like movers, the reckless and impetuous shakers,  the impatient and the stubborn!

Here are some of their thoughts at present:

  •  NS should resign forthwith . .. BUT

Scotland would be sad to lose Nicola Sturgeon’s managerial abilities. She has done a lot for the country and its image abroad.

Query: Could she share power?

Advantages: If Nicola Sturgeon continues as First Minister but has no responsibilities for delivering Independence it immediately gets rid of “the get on with the day job” line of  attack.

A new Minister for Independence  could take up responsibility for delivering independence

Risultati immagini per eggs in more than 1 basket

  •  More Independence parties in Scotland,

Advantages: No more eggs in one basket. No more reliance on only the SNP. Scotland has only one choice really, and the SNP are trying to do the impossible and appeal to all.

Scotland   needs changes in strategy, tactics, ideas – preferably from all quarters.

 

Risultati immagini per recall icon

 

  •  Recall SNP MPs from Westminster.Scottish MEPs are already back. A“National Assembly” instead of Nicola Sturgeon’s “Constitutional Convention”  should be set up. It could declare independence, be internationally recognised, and hold a confirmatory referendum.

Risultati immagini per unilateral declaration of independence

  • Holyrood has to shut its doors to Westminster’s rules and conventions and open them as the Sovreign Scottish parliament. Independence happens when Scotland stops obeying Westminster and rejects its conventions.

  • Persuade the world to  recognise Scotland’s legitimate status as a nation. Approach world authorities for International Recognition, thus by-passing Westminster

  • Test whether Westminster’s refusal of a Section 30 order is legal. Forward as One has just sent a pre litigation letter to the Lord Advocate, arguing on behalf of the people of Scotland and  using the Declaration of Arbroath and the Claim of Rights etc which predate the  1707 Scotland Act of Union.

 

Remember: the difference between being in the UK and being in the EU!

 

 

9 thoughts on “What now, Scotland?

  1. The sound of membership cards being ripped up I’m afraid is a fantasy hope for those who dislike the SNP because the membership rose again after Boris Johnsons refusal and again after the First Ministers speech
    The route to Independence is difficult to achieve and the only thing Dominic Cummings, who’s actually running the UK was depending on was that the Yes movement would desert the SNP over what he and others tried to portray as timid non action from The First Minister, he was wrong and there’s been no deserting

    If the current regime at Westminster were so sure of their position why are they embarking on a £5 million campaign to *convince* Scots not to be Independent, one might suggest that move just gave the game away

    Dominic Cummings is a Nazi everybody knows it but nobody will say it, they use the more modern term of *Populist* now doesn’t that sound lovely

    By April of this year the cracks will be chasms as the EU grind Johnson and his crew into the ground just as they did over Northen Ireland

    Liked by 2 people

    • By April Scottish, Welsh, and Northern Irish lamb and beef will not meet EU standards or be heavily tariffed. Gibraltar will be absorbed by Spain. And everyone in Europe will fish the north sea except us. And LBJ will claim his trade deal is a run away success.

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      • I am not a farming person, Pogmothon but as far as I know the entire island of Ireland is treated as a single epidemiological unit for flora and fauna. Conditions for placing agricultural products on the market, including on food quality, consumer information, external trade and standards for animal health, plant health, and products of animal and plant origin on the island of Ireland are currently underpinned by EU legislation. Since the UK has agreed there will be no hard border on the island of Ireland, this set-up will continue after Brexit and Transition.
        I am sorry I cannot say the same for Welsh and Scottish farmers who do risk tariffs and/or inability to export to the EU because of non-certification status

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  2. Thanks for your comment Jim and welcome to the site.
    I agree with your reasoning on the £5 million spend by Westminster on anti-Independence propaganda. and I also agree that the reality of Brexit will be very, very different to the Brexit fantasies.
    However, at present insisting on an art 30 Referendum hardly seems to me personally the best way forward for achieving Independence . I hope some other legal pathway is found

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Good appraisal and opinion of the state of play with Scottish independence. That was a fair assesment, immediately following FM speech on Friday. However looking back at the reactions, from a couple of days on, I see a lot of angry statements being shouted from some of the big voices in the indy movement, and not only from the big voices. Sort of knee jerk outbursts, born out of disappointment, at what was not said by FM, and frustration at where we are.

    Words are more calm and measured, tone not so hot and angry, at least towards the FM. Anger towards the Westminster government, who have managed to acheive such a comfortable majority despite the incompetence and lies, still increases.

    The indy movement has also entered a transition phase, I’m not sure what will emerge from this. I feel sure, but don’t know for sure that various options are being considered, including your National Assembly. Make no mistake though, we are watching events that history people will be reading about in many years to come. The rebirth of a nation? The final collapse of empire and once proud nation? Or maybe the embodiment of that Chinese curse, “May you live in interesting times”.

    What ever direction events go it will be a long time till boredom and hum drum.

    The £5m is another great oppertunity to raise the blood pressure of the little Englander mind set;
    “Of the £5m being spent in Scotland, we’ll only be billed for 8.6% of it (Barnett Formula). You lot are picking up the rest of the tab. Tapadh leat, mòran taing, danke”. The more probable reality is that Scotland will be billed for the whole amount.

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  4. Thanks for your comment Alan. It’s always a pleasure to hear from you. I apologise for the delay in replying but work, social committments and the Irish General Election took up all my time until the other day!

    This transition phase in the independence movement seems to indicate that Scotland is really facing up to its fundamental choice only now even though it seems strange to say that after half a century and more of SNP activity. I suppose it’s because the “gradualist, small increment” approach seems to have come up against the “no further” wall and people are hesitant about processing the implications.

    Will Scotland opt to preserve what the country and her people are by the only available means i.e. becoming independent ? Will it make its bid for independence, yet fail? Or will it opt to become “British” to all intents and purposes for the forseeable future and let the Independence Movement gradually fade away?

    I agree it’s hard to discern an effective way forward but one will have to be found that is fully supported by the various currents of thought in the Independence movement. Present disarray suits only Westminster and damages the movement.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. Never noticed the delay. I can well imagine how absorbing the Irish election would’ve been, what a result. Possible regret at SF restricting themselves to 42 seats though.

    Westminster is rattled by the Irish election result and the latest polls from Scotland. Was the Scotland/Northern Ireland bridge announcement a reaction to this or a deflection to the floods/Russia report/deporting against court rulings? Who knows.

    Westminster/Dàil/Stormont meetings will be interesting in the months to come.

    I’m hopeful. Sam Cooke’s “a change is gonna come” is in my head.

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