Land of Hope and Glory,
Mother of the free,
How shall we extole thee,
Who are born of thee,
Wider still and wider,
Shall thy bounds be set,
God who made the mighty,
Make thee mightier yet!!
Day 1 – the UK General Election campaign 2015
Here’s a quick overview of how matters stand at present
Britain-wide voting intentions (YouGov, 4th-5th January) :
Labour 34% (-2)
Conservatives 31% (-1)
UKIP 14% (-2)
Greens 8% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 7% (+1)
SNP/Plaid Cymru 4% (n/c)
Comment: over 33% voters spurn Conservatives and Labour.
Lib-Dem support is low.
We’ll also have a look at potential outcomes and their pros and cons!
There are a lot more questions than answers at the moment.
Lib-Dems risk losing most of their 56 seats in the House of Commons. They’ve lost their deposits in any by-election they’ve stood for since they entered the current coalition government with the conservatives.
Conservatives are divided over Europe and UKIP. Seat loss very likely. Majority very unlikely.
Labour is beset by doubts about Ed Miliband as leader. Risks losing many of its seats in Scotland to the SNP. Seat gain in England probable. Majority very unlikely
Comment: Lab and the Cons are both running two campaigns
Lab needs to save their seats in Scotland and appeal to ‘Middle England’.
Liberal Democrats 3%,
SNP has close to 100,000 members and aims at as many Scottish seats as possible. Major seat gains appear certain
Wales: Plaid Cymru is holding on. Could gain or lose a couple of seats. Labour will hold on to its seats
Sinn Fein could gain North Belfast.
Alliance could hold East Belfast, leaving the Unionist /Loyalist parties with no Belfast seats
A Lab or Con coalition with the Lib Dems is viable only if the number of Lib Dem MPs exceeds the combined total of Green, Nationalist and Northern Ireland parties (DUP, UUP, UKIP and SDLP).
The Conservative’s Road for Britain leads to a rainbow coalition!!
*A multi-party government of Cons+UKIP+ (heaven forbid)DUP or Lab+SNP+ Greens
*Some other confidence-and-supply arrangement with a minority government
BUT . . . .
*If Labour works with the SNP they destroy their chances in England,
If they don’t, they show England they are willing to let the Tories remain in power for another five years, rather than work with the SNP.
* The English would never accept a DUP minister of anything
Comment: Labour between a rock and a hard place. No kingmaker role for NI Unionist parties
*Will England accept a hung parliament with the SNP as kingmakers?
* Will England let Scotland call the shots and tell England what to do?
Expected Result: instability and another General Election within a short space of time
A National Government
Labour and the Cons (who would have a very clear majority over everybody else) form a national government
*You will defend the UK from breakup.
The governments of Ramsay MacDonald, Stanley Baldwin and Neville Chamberlain (1931- 1940). If financial worries continue, the media will make the same case as they did in the 1930s and the people will believe them.
*If the First Class passengers of the UK Establishment are to be saved, then a ‘National Coalition’ is the logical choice.
*They will close ranks to defend the established order.
*Their priority is London and themselves because it makes them think they still have some relevance in world affairs
*They want to further corporate capitalism.
*Westminster parties and MPs are opportunists. If it’s the only way to retain power, they’ll do it
*Lab and Cons have more in common with each other than with Celtic Fringe insurgents
*They most certainly agree on keeping Irish, Welsh and Scottish nationalists in their place
*They fear the rise of the Green, & UKIP parties and will do anything to keep them out.
*They will not allow the SNP to call the shots
*They will do everything to prevent it because if the SNP hold balance of power the Union is over
*There would be no English anger as Scottish separatists/insurgents would have no influence on policy.
*A constitutional crisis would be prevented
*There would be a functioning coalition
*It will have five years to ‘stabilise’ the UK.
*The National Government won’t have an EU referendum and it won’t fullfil ‘The Vow’
Comment: Desperate times call for desperate measures. On the other hand . . . . .
BUT . . . .
*Tories and UKIP have refused to rule out a Tory-UKIP coalition:
MPs from each party might leave.. . . .
*Party grassroots, core support and campaigning teams would not accept it and would be demoralised,
*Many Tory backbenchers would regard it as demeaning and humiliating for Scotland to be the issue that forced them into a coalition government with Labour.
*The Trade Union – Labour alliance, cornerstone of Labour’s existence, would end
*Many Labour MP’s might split from the NuLab to form a new left of centre party with Trade Union backing
*Labour would go the same way as the Lib Dems unless there is an external threat (cue another war?)
*Could the minority parties (nationalists, greens, Lib-dems and UKIP) make up a credible opposition?
They are not likely to agree with each other over anything for long.
*Alex Salmond would never be accepted as Leader of the Opposition in Westminster because his life’s mission has been, and is, Independence for Scotland
The Celtic Fringe
*A National Government will deny Scotland its voice in the union.
*It would strip democracy from Scotland.
*It would break-up Labour’s stranglehold over the Welsh electorate by exposing them for the fraudsters they are.
*NI Unionist and SDLP MPs would be ignored
Comment: With a National Government Westminster
1) thwarts Welsh, Irish and Scottish nationalism
2) proves that independence will never be tolerated
3) shows that England and Westminster come first
4) shows Scots, Welsh and Irish that Westminster wants to keep the land areas but not the actual people
5) ends Westminster’s con trick regarding democracy
Queries: Will The national Government be the last domino to fall as the Empire and the Union take their final breaths?
Will it be the final nail in the coffin of Westminster?
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