Post-Brexit – Northern Ireland and Scotland to be seen and not heard?

The Leave vote indicated to the world that England and Wales are not interested in political union, currency union, freedom of movement and a single market. These core principles are the basis of the Union of nations within the United Kingdom, yet the English and Welsh have rejected them. Here’s what the British  PM Theresa May said today.

Main points:
1) “We will leave the European Union as one United Kingdom. There is no opt out from Brexit,” and I will never allow divisive nationalists to undermine the precious union between the four nations of our UK.

Query: Which divisive nationalists is PM May referring to? UKIPPers and the hard Tory Brexiteers?

rule britannia

2) England will prevail, at any cost
May stressed the task of overseeing the negotiations would be entirely up to the government, which would “get on the job” without being delayed or derailed by parliament or devolved administrations. PM May seems to think that she and her cabinet have the plenipotentiary powers, to draw up a Brexit strategy, set out the UK’s terms and conditions, negotiate with EU27, agree an exit package, and force it upon the UK citizenry without so much as a by your leave from Parliament. Westminster will not be informed in any case about what is going on so as not to “reveal the UK Govt’s negotiating strategy” to the EU.

Query: Hasn’t PM May’s speech just done that? The EU now knows when Art 50 will be triggered and what type of Brexit the UK wants –  no EU law, no free movement of EU people etc.

She even told viewers she didn’t want the single market:“We are going to be a fully-independent, sovereign country,”. “A country that is no longer part of a political union with supranational institutions that can override national parliaments and courts.”

Brexit meant having “the freedom to make our own decisions on a whole host of different matters, from how we label our food to the way in which we choose to control immigration.”

Image result for 1832 repeal act
3) the “Great Repeal Bill” – a sop to Westminster,  a kick in the teeth to the EU, and proof the UK didn’t get the name “Perfidious Albion” for nothing –  will be introduced in the Queen’s speech sometime in May 2017 (date not yet confirmed)
a) Although it will repeal the European Communities Act 1972, by which UK law was made temporarily (for 46 years) subservient to EU law, the Great Repeal will say that all EU law continues to apply in the UK until Parliament decides that it doesn’t.

Comment: The UK is legally out of the EU but technically still ‘compliant’ with its laws. Therefore in Tory thinking,  the UK is entitled to a trade deal with the EU and its single market.

cherrypick

b) The “cherry-picking “starts as Westminister decides which bits of EU law to keep – which could could take 10 years. In other words Westminster is going “Cherry-pick” EU laws which the EU said was a big NO-NO. But as it will be doing it from outside the EU I suppose it won’t matter to anyone except the people in the UK.

irish flagsaltire3

c) Compliance with EU law and having the European Court of Justice are crucial in Scotland and Northern Ireland, the acts covering their devolved administrations and the Peace Settlement in Northern Ireland

Queries: How long before they are “cherry-picked”?

If Irish nationalists/republicans were subjected to horrors during the 50 year reign of the Orange State in NI, how will EU citizens be treated when they are locked in with permanent DUP/right-wing English Tory overlords?

If Scotland suffered  during the Thatcher years and the Poll Tax ignominy, how will her people feel locked in with permanent right-wing English Tory overlords, which they don’t vote for?

 

way-forward

There’s a hard road ahead  and we need to look out  for  our own survival as best we can.

questions

Questions for NI, Scotland and indeed the ROI:
What do we want, what do we need, and what can’t we live with and/or without?

The answers will help determine what we need to do

irish tricolour

As a member of of the EU, Ireland works to promote its interests (which are more than economic) within the EU. In the Brexit negotiations, which look increasingly like being short and very sharp, Ireland will try and get them protected within the EU’s position in the negotiations.

So what are the most important interests to be protected by the Irish government?
The peace that followed the Good Friday/Belfast Agreement. The well-being and prosperity of all the Irish citizens who hold EU passports.Safeguarding the rights of Northerners to stay within the EU.

mcguinness

The  Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland Martin McGuinness insisted that since 56% people in Northern Ireland voted to remain in the European Union that vote “must be recognised and respected in any negotiations” on Brexit. Fine Gael are in the strongest position to voice Irish concerns. NI’s elected representatives might as well not be in Westminster- The DUP supports Leave, no matter what the people of NI voted, Sinn Fein doesn’t take its seats in Westminster. The other 5 NI MPs are hardly a whisper in the wind as 59 SNP MPs can’t make their voices heard. .

Should Ireland just ignore the UK? But isn’t the UK Ireland’s biggest market?
Yes it may well be today.It may well have been in the past due to political circumstances. There’s no law to say it will be in the future. Markets can and do change – old markets die off and new markets open up.
Comment: Irish politicians should agree on something that benefits everyone living on the island of ireland. Once the all island agreement has been presented, the UK will have to come up with a very good reason why it can’t be applied.  

And  Scotland . . .

saltire2

PM May’s speech displayed a fairly clear stance against Scottish interests . Hitting EU legislation could deprive Scotland of the opportunity for a second referendum which  PM May has said shouldn’t be held. The final arbiter to allow a referendum or not will lie with the English Supreme Court. Guess what that decision will be?

scottish-parliament

The Scottish Govt could perhaps start exploring the legal possibilities of a Bill for Dissolving the Union between Scotland and England. It has already started the process of determining what the Scottish people want by means of a national survey and is producing a new Bill for a second Independence Referendum (IndyRef2)

indyref2

Scotland has two choices come IndyRef2.
Either to become Independent and create a better future for everyone in the country, or to be destroyed as it becomes a remote backwater on an isolationist island.

It really is that simple.

Remember: The EU will be happy to keep Northern Ireland and an Independent Scotland. Indeed it has no mechanism for expelling EU citizens or stripping them of their citizenship.And what a message NI and Scotland remaining will send to the rest of the world!

Conclusions:

Image result for time

*for Scotland and Northern Ireland to reject the British Union, particularly as they have just been told they don’t count and the UK Government doesn’t care.
*to let England and Wales go their own way.

And time apears to be of the essence.

PM May has said she will trigger Art 50 by end of March 2017 at the latest. Westminster civil servants are aiming at having everything ready for mid-January.

Even though 2 years is the maximum (unless there is 100% agreement on extending the time) negotiation period, the UK might have it done and dusted in well under 2 years.

A hard Brexit negotiation is likely to be sharp, swift  and to the point.

Image result for warning

Ignoring Northern Ireland, the Republic of Ireland and Scotland could be the best way for the UK to keep the Union together  . . . . . .

as long as everything is done quickly, leaving Scotland and Ireland little  time to organise  and implement any counteraction to this strategy.

 

Theresa May sets Brexit course on hard

http://www.branchcollective.org/?ps_articles=janice-carlisle-on-the-second-reform-act-1867

Using The GROW Model (Part 4) – What’s the Way Forward?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/01/brexit-begins-theresa-may-takes-axe-to-eu-laws/

http://www.visitlondon.com/things-to-do/event/31837164-state-opening-of-parliament#ahHQr31rlM0qWSaC.97

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/northern-ireland-brexit-vote-must-be-respected-1.2813913

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/02/theresa-may-great-repeal-bill-eu-british-law

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/01/brexit-clean-quick-break-article-50-bernard-jenkin

http:///news.sky.com/story/could-pm-theresa-may-invoke-article-50-earlier-than-march-10603408

Indyref2 will be held in 2018

Time in a Bottle

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10 thoughts on “Post-Brexit – Northern Ireland and Scotland to be seen and not heard?

  1. The announcement of intent to trigger Article 50 by late March is interesting. I didn’t expect it quite so soon. I was of the camp thinking that May and company had found themselves holding the tiger by the tail, having no Brexit strategy whatsoever, and thought a full two years would pass first. Apparently they have some sort of master plan that the proles just can’t be trusted with.
    The arrogance is astonishing, even for them.

    Liked by 1 person

    • strangely enough i was having a drink with an Indian-American friend on Saturday who was also convinced brexit would never be triggered!
      The brits are great at surprise attacks (or feints?). It’s all military style strategy for them!
      May’s government appear to be going for a rush job to get 2 pigeons with the one stone – 1) keeping the the majority of brits who voted brexit happy. I wouldn’t like to be the government that tries to thwart their will! and 2) A quick out stymies a UK break-up as Ni and Scotland will have to scramble to get their remain strategy in place.

      Agree about the arrogance!! What else did we expect?

      Liked by 1 person

      • I knew they would follow through eventually. They don’t have much of a choice. The sudden hard exit approach reeks of desperation though, doesn’t it? Negotiations were never going to be in their favour. They will make a mess of it all, and drag Scotland and and NI into it. RoI, too.

        Liked by 1 person

      • I think hard brexit is all about Tories being the boss-cats “taking back control”. They won’t be in any “humiliating”negotiations with the EU where they might come off worse. They’ll do it “their way”. Full fat arrogance once again!
        martin mc guinness said today Ni was just “collateral damage”!! and FG minister of foreign affairs Mr Flanagan is already suggesting a hard border is on the cards.Maybe the irish govt doesn’t intend to safeguard the rights of irish EU citizens in NI.
        On past evidence neither FG nor FF did much to aid Northern Republicans/nationalists over the 30 years “Troubles”or the 50 years Orange State hegemony.
        Shouldn’t Irish EU citizens North and South be told if that’s still the case today?

        Like

      • I think hard brexit is all about Tories being the boss-cats “taking back control”. They won’t be in any “humiliating”negotiations with the EU where they might come off worse. They’ll do it “their way”. Full fat arrogance once again!
        martin mc guinness said today Ni was just “collateral damage”!! and FG minister of foreign affairs Mr Flanagan is already suggesting a hard border is on the cards.Maybe the irish govt doesn’t intend to safeguard the rights of irish EU citizens in NI.
        On past evidence neither FG nor FF did much to aid Northern Republicans/nationalists over the 30 years “Troubles”or the 50 years Orange State hegemony.
        Shouldn’t Irish EU citizens North and South be told if that’s still the case today?

        Liked by 1 person

  2. wow, yes, blunt and straight to the point and without all the “decorations”, you painted it well.
    and yes, the arrogance is really astonishing this time. I could not believe it when I watched yesterday. although I still do think it’s all a pose, a bluff, cause they really don’t have a clue, as the Italians say – the right hand doesn’t know what the left one is doing. May is baring her teeth, in the way a cornered animal would, because she still thinks she has the power, you know, she’s the British PM, that’s got to be enough to scare anyone. But unfortunately, even her chancellor admitted that Britain imports more than it exports, that debt is rather high, and I’d like to add that the British gold reserve is a 10th of the German one, just as an example. She knows they’re in bit sh*te, we all know it, but she has to “keep up appearances”.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Welcome IMDB. Thanks for the compliments and for expressing your viewpoint. i hope you are right and it is all a bluff.
    Who’s going to call it? some members of the house of lords have made a tentative suggestion and were immediately threatened with abolition. Who’s next at the table?
    PS We all remember the deadly costs (to other people) of the UK “keeping up appearances” in the past.

    Like

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