We are waiting for the results of the Spanish General Election –
The end of a 2-party system and the formation of some sort of coalition seems inevitable.
Why’s it important?
The Spanish election is a test of whether austerity prescriptions are politically viable in Europe. Particularly if a No Austerity Spain can ally with the in-coming Left Coalition in Portugal
What’s the state of play in Spain?
Looks like a 4-way split at present.
The conservative Popular Party and Socialists
Corruption scandals and high unemployment
Reported set to capture together as much as 40% of the vote are right-centrist
a socially and fiscally conservative party, and far-left(?)
NB: What happened in Greece after the Syriza victory fightened Podemos.
(As it was designed to do)
They hastily moved to a centre-left position – with the excuse of gaining more voters. Podemos defines itself as a party of ordinary citizens that is neither left nor right, and attacks the political establishment as representing a corrupt “caste” that refuses to listen to the demands and needs of ordinary citizens.
We’ll see later this evening if their gambit is successful.
What happens if Spain moves towards No Austerity?
Remember what happened to Greece?
Will the rest of Europe stand back and watch this happen again?
Partido Popular: 120
PSOE (Socialists): 91
The overall majority threshold is 176.
Comments:Note the media spin in 1) the names of possible coalitions and 2) calling Podemos and Ciudadanos “upstart” parties.
Nobody seems willing to go into a “Grand Coalition” with the PP. It would be the death knell of the Socialists.
Is a “Coalition of Losers” tri-partite coalition of the left, as in Portugal, likely? or even possible?
If not, maybe another general election beckons in the new year!!
What happens now?
The king proposes a PM-candidate who must win an absolute majority in parliament, or a simple majority within 48 hours after the first vote, to form a government.
If s/he fails, the king can propose other candidates.
If no candidate manages to form a government within two months of the first investiture vote, Parliament is dissolved and new elections called.