North Belfast: Gerry Kelly vs Our Nige

As we rejoice in the Syriza victory let’s see whether Hope is coming to North Belfast

How much does North Belfast  count in the overall picture in NI?

north belfast conal

 

Tiny amount as the map shows –  even though the constituency has been extended to include  Ballyhenry, Collinbridge, Glebe, Glengormley, Hightown and Cloughfern.

So why’s it so interesting? 

It signifies a huge amount .

With a Sinn Fein win   – if all things remain the same  (Alliance Naomi Long holds East Belfast and SDLP holds South Belfast) –  there will be

NO UNIONIST MP FOR BELFAST,  CAPITAL CITY OF UNIONISM

Comment : Potential Loss of the Unionist Capital!!

the horror

SF wins  over Twaddell

And decapitates Nigel Dodds,  Deputy Leader

Comment: Loyalists have already attempted this with a brick!

dodds injured

But wasn’t the change in electoral boundaries designed to prevent a SF win?

Broadly speaking  yes. Specifically no.

What about the Demographic and electoral shift?

0.2% more Catholic  and 0.3% less Protestant.

The new voters are slightly more likely to have supported UUP and Alliance in 2005 than those of the old seat.

Comment: Expansion  was designed to boost Mr  Dodd’s majority of over 8,000 by about 700

In fact the 2010 General Election  returned as  MP for Belfast North County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)

Nigel Dodds (DUP),

dodds orangeman

member of the Orange Order and  the Privy Council

What’s the Privy Council?

It’s  something personal to the Sovereign.

elizabeth II

It’s to do with the word private.The Sovereign may appoint anyone a Privy Counsellor, but usually follows the advice of the Government. The Privy Council generally consists of senior members of Parliament, the church and judiciary. There is no limit to the numbers sworn in as members.

And Our  Nige

dodds orangeman

 

is a Member?

Yes indeed.

svoreign

Can he talk to Her Majesty whenever he wants?

Each Privy Counsellor has the individual right of personal access to the Sovereign – but only  to tender advice on public affairs

Just like the Pope?

Britain Pope

You could put it like that

But wasn’t  Our Nige  caught out being economical with the truth on TV?

Do Privy Councillors tell porkies?

Apparently so!!

Anyway – back to the subject in hand.

Here are the figures for the 2010 general election  in North Belfast or Belfast North , whichever you prefer

Electorate: 65,504
Turnout: 56.47%
2010 Votes       2010 Share
DUP 14,812         40.04%
SF 12,588            34.03%
SDLP 4,544        12.28%
UCUNF 2,837      7.67%
MIN 1,809            4.89%
OTH 403               1.09%
DUP Majority 2,224 6.01%

Not over 8,000?

thumb-down-no-sign

Another porkie?

Apparently so!

So Gerry Kelly is in with a chance?

What do you think?

north belfast

26 /4 /2015 Quick Update:

Did you know that North Belfast has been represented by Unionists since 1885?

Isn’t it time for change? 

 

 

http://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/gboun07.htm

http://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/anb.htm

http://sluggerotoole.com/2015/01/26/gerry-kelly-running-on-an-aggressively-get-themuns-out-ticket-in-north-belfast/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Privy_Council_of_the_United_Kingdom

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_members_of_the_British_Privy_Council

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2 thoughts on “North Belfast: Gerry Kelly vs Our Nige

  1. A member of the Privy Council could not possibly tell “porkies”. He is after all The Right Honourable Nigel Dodds.
    Id predict a downturn in both SDLP and UUP vote…..they will be squeezed.
    It is effectively a “head to head” .
    I also expect a “spoiler” dissident to run…Dee Fennell perhaps.
    did SF lose out a little in 2014 Council Elections?
    Are people just a bit fed up with the DUP SF phoney war?
    How will Welfare Cuts play?
    There is a “Dodds Factor” ….Dodds MP? Mrs Dodds MEP?
    Id say Dodds to win narrowly.

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  2. I’m not altogether sure the Mr/Mrs Dodds political tandem will go down well in this day and age. people are getting fed up with political dynasties.
    Let’s hope any “spoiler dissident ” realises it’s in the nationalist/republican community’s best interest in this seat to stay away. There will be other opportunities to stand.
    SF will neeed work hard “chappin doors” as the Scots say and getting the voters out on the day.
    SF did lose out a little on the 2014 council elections – not enough work done on the ground. They also lost some votes in the recent MEP elections – though the excuse (reason?) was they were fighting under 2 different legislatures. However, they certainly can’t take voters for granted – that is Labour’s mistake in Scotland and has been for some years.
    I hope the chance of having a DUP-free representation of Belfast in Westminster (particularly with abstentionism and 2016 looming) will galvanise them into frenetic activity! By the same count the DUP/OO will be going into overdrive. So it will be a fight to the last vote.

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